«Name the lead in 2024: The Movie»  

Martin, if 2024 were made into a movie about the financial centre, what would its title be? And would the lead role go to stability, innovation or regulation?  

When I look at pictures of this autumn’s America’s Cup, the film title that immediately comes to mind is its motto, “There is no second”. There can only be one winner, and where the banks are concerned, that means their clients. 

And, like yachts competing in the America’s Cup, banks have to combine stability, innovation and regulation in equal measure. 

They actually have boats that fly these days. I’d like to see bank clients benefit from that innovative leap and get some uplift themselves. That said, stability is key. Even the best innovations are useless on a sinking ship. The Swiss boat also can’t be subjected to stricter rules that hold it back against its rivals. Otherwise, it might as well stay in port. 

The downfall of Credit Suisse was the big drama of last year. But every good story needs a plot twist. Where do you see the turning point for the financial centre, and what helped the sector get under way again? 

To stick with the nautical metaphor, the CS boat simply sailed too close to the wind. The experts’ analysis will show that a beam reach is the fastest. That said, the stability and innovative capacity of all the other banks in Switzerland remain impressive. Turning the Swiss fleet round onto a totally new tack, and losing a lot of momentum on the way, is therefore unnecessary. Early, targeted adjustments based on accurate charts and weather reports offer the best promise of success.  

The findings of the Banking Barometer are seen as taking the pulse of the Swiss banking sector. Were there any figures that particularly surprised you, either positively or negatively?  

It’s gratifying to see that the banks can still increase their net income even in a challenging economic and geopolitical environment. Last year lent a boost to interest operations. This year, fee and commission income in investment activities are likely to make up for the tougher conditions on the interest rate front, proving once again the benefits of a large and well diversified banking sector.  

With the digital transformation and AI, banks need to keep fit. What “training regime” do you recommend for the sector in 2025 if it’s to stay on top?  

I see two basic requirements for the banks to confront technological challenges. Firstly, those that have their costs under control are better placed to chart the right technological course for the future quickly and make the necessary investments. Secondly, a fundamental understanding of the potential and risks of deploying new technologies is crucial. Without that, decisions on future action will be sacrificed to a blanket financial and legal risk avoidance strategy. 

What question would you like to answer that you’ve never been asked? 

Whether, after breaking the USD 100,000 barrier, Bitcoin will keep on climbing through USD 200,000. I don’t think I’m risking much by saying “yes”. When it happens, I’ll publicly refer to my prediction, but until then I’ll bide my time. That approach is the reason why most forecasters get it right, even though return forecasts are very difficult.